Good demand needs to be calm
From a macro perspective, the better economic environment and the further improvement of the automobile consumption environment have determined that the demand for the car market will continue to improve in the next year. According to the forecasts of the National Information Center Economic Consultation Center, the national demand for automobiles in 2003 will be about 3.8 million, of which domestic demand for cars will be 1.435 million, an increase of around 26.4% year-on-year.
While the industry is generally optimistic about the next year's auto market, some people have calmly pointed out that the explosive growth of the car market this year has a certain "accumulated demand release" effect, which is the result of years of precipitation. With the peak of purchases, the market growth will be lower this year than this year.
Zhu Fushou, general manager of Dongfeng Motor Company believes that this year's high growth in the auto industry has irrational factors and there has been a phenomenon of blind investment. The person in charge of the Shanghai Volkswagen sales company expects that the nation’s auto sales will increase by about 10% next year. This figure is much lower than the forecast of more than 20% growth given by the research department.
A series of favorable policies to be introduced by the country will certainly promote the consumption of automobiles. However, compared with the enormous enthusiasm shown by local governments and automobile manufacturers, consumers may be more concerned about their personal feelings and need to look at the specific contents and implementation of the policies. In addition, there has been a great change in the current consumer market in the domestic car market, and the main driving force for growth in car demand has come from private car purchases. Contrary to the price insensitivity of public car purchases, the characteristics of private car purchases are not only sensitive to price response, but also very discriminating against models, performance, configuration and technical content. This will encourage companies to compete fiercely in new products and new technologies, and to make more careful consideration in pricing.
Market tempts investment inflation
Undoubtedly, the price trend of the auto market next year will depend mainly on changes in the relationship between supply and demand. Without expecting explosive growth in market demand, the company’s production capacity and production and sales plan will become the basic basis for judging the situation.
According to statistics, as of the end of November this year, the national sales of cars were about 1.1 million, and sales were slightly higher than production. As some models are in short supply due to capacity constraints, manufacturers have to invest heavily in expanding production capacity. The impact of capacity growth will surely become apparent next year. From the information obtained so far, all manufacturers are fully satisfied and ready to work hard next year: Tianjin FAW only Xiali car plans to produce and sell 135,000 vehicles; Guangzhou Honda's production capacity will reach 120,000 at the beginning of next year, and plans to produce and sell. 110,000 vehicles, both more than double this year; SAIC Chery also plans to achieve 100% growth in production and sales, reaching 100,000; Shanghai GM has already begun to shift the entire production line of Sail to a new base in Yantai, so as to make room for expanding production capacity next year. Shanghai Volkswagen only plans to produce and sell more than 100,000 GOL and POLO vehicles next year; even Changfeng Cheetah will raise its sales target to 30,000, which is twice as fast as this year.
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