New wheat may rise around October

The market for new wheat in 2011 has been on the market for more than two months. The wheat purchase market has been tepid. In early June, the introductory prices of grain at all levels rose slightly. After mid-July, with the withdrawal of policy acquisitions and the absence of other acquisition entities, wheat in different regions fell to varying degrees. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere of all parties involved in purchases is still strong. The wheat market has not seen the embarrassing situation of “buying or not selling” for many years, and is generally pessimistic about the wheat market.

Fall out of the opportunity and increase the risk. According to the author's observations and thoughts, there may be a recovery rise around October. The reasons are as follows.

First, due to the constraints of capital cost, the main body of the acquisition of wheat has not reached the stock level of normal years. In particular, the majority of flour processing companies adopt the strategy of “use more or less,” plus the current low season of wheat flour consumption. The maturation period of new wheat is not yet over, so the number of purchases is very limited. With the turning of the weather, the opening of large and medium-sized schools, the expansion of flour consumption, and the end of the wheat ripening period, the flourishing demand for new wheat by flour companies will inevitably increase the procurement of wheat.

Second, the recovery and development of the feed aquaculture industry, this year's pork, poultry eggs, aquatic product prices broke through the historical record, this year's aquaculture industry's high profits, prompting the rapid expansion of the aquaculture industry, coupled with a large number of wheat substitutes for corn, wheat and corn The price difference has exceeded 300 yuan per ton, resulting in “pigs rushing for food” and will increase the demand for wheat.

3. The purchase of wheat supporting the city for five consecutive years has failed to start, so that the state lacks necessary material and basic guarantees for late-stage food price control. The country is very likely to implement flexible temporary wheat storage and storage in the main wheat-producing areas by the end of September. .

Fourth, due to the increase in the production costs of grain-growing farmers, the reluctant seller’s psychology remains unabated. There is great hope for this year's wheat market price, and it will not be sold if it does not reach the psychological price level, prompting the market wheat to be “smooth”.

V. The state will actively announce the enthusiasm for grain and agriculture and ensure food security. It is possible to announce the price of wheat support next year before the fall broadcast this year. According to the factors of rising prices, it is expected that the market price will be raised significantly, which will inevitably push up market wheat prices.

Sixth, the impact of the international grain market, due to the continued devaluation of the US dollar, the domestic import inflationary pressure has increased. This will lead to a sustained increase in the price of commodities denominated in U.S. dollars. This will inevitably lead to imported inflationary pressures for imported grain in our country.

7. The price of wheat, which has been sluggish for a long time, will surely be the best investment product for hot money to escape currency devaluation. Among wheat, corn, and rice, only the price of wheat has risen basically for more than a year, while corn prices have increased by 20% and rice has exceeded 10%. Both the production costs and the circulation costs have forced wheat prices to return to normal and reasonable levels.

VIII. Uncertain factors of climate, the production situation of autumn grain is not optimistic. The droughts in some parts of southern China, the early frost in northern regions, and the speculation of autumn sowing weather in North China caused psychological panic and artificially expanded wheat. Expectations of late rise.

All sorts of signs indicate that the price of new wheat seems to be calm. In fact, it is constantly accumulating rising energy. Once a certain factor breaks this calm, there will be a huge market demand, which will drive the price to rise rapidly. However, the current high inflation, the determination of the government's management account has not changed, such as excessive fluctuations in wheat prices, will inevitably put pressure on. Therefore, the author believes that: rising is inevitable, and the magnitude is hard to predict at this stage.

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