1. Counting and charging has impacted on the wind industry
(1) The rate of high-speed traffic declines and part of the freight rate increases
According to calculations, the transportation of goods of various types and tonnage levels requires the use of vehicles of different tonnages in order to ensure the maximization of the operating income of their highways. If the operator does not own this type of vehicle, he will not directly purchase a new car (and there may not be a suitable car model available on the market) in the short term, and wait and see for the same industry while choosing to travel on non-county-weighted toll roads, or directly report local traffic. vehicle.
The use of national roads has increased, the speed of vehicles has declined, road damage has deteriorated, vehicle speed has decreased, and freight transportation has extended in time, resulting in low logistics efficiency. As a result, some time-critical cargo transportation starts to flow back to the expressway. This part of freight rates Steadily improved.
(2) Increase in freight volume to promote logistics efficiency
The promotion of weight-based tolls has made it more difficult to select national routes for non-counterfeit charges. With the continuous growth of freight demand, the national logistics bottleneck has further deteriorated. The transportation costs brought about by the low turnover times have made logistics operators tentatively select the goods to return to the expressway, and steadily increase the freight rates. More materials are selected for highway transportation.
(3) Highlighted demand for specific models
Zhang Wang became a move, and the steady increase in freight rates made new model purchases the first choice for operators. Heavy-duty trucks began in the second half of 2005, and sales increased rapidly. Traditional quasi-heavy trucks such as FAW Jiefang and Chunfeng commercial vehicles need to shrink year by year. After the purchase of new vehicles, the traffic volume of expressways increased and the logistics effectiveness improved. Oil prices continue to operate at high levels, and the high fuel economy of heavy trucks has also accelerated this return process.
The relative increase in freight volume is an important driving force driving the growth of vehicle sales. The freight turnover in Figure 5 and the truck sales in Figure 6 are the best evidence.
2. The remaining impact of weighted fees
At the same time, toll-by-weight charges are also a major factor driving the change in truck sales structure. It can be clearly seen from Figure 7 that the implementation of weight-based charging has brought about the gradual emergence of the advantages of heavy trucks: low tkm tolls and good fuel economy, which is an important driving force for tempting trucks to become large-scale. Domestic traffic continues to grow, the premise of the road network increases substantially, and oil prices continue to soar, forcing the industry to increase overall logistics efficiency. This is also a factor that spurs the logistics industry to opt for more efficient large trucks.
Weight-based charges have greatly stimulated the sales of tractors in heavy-duty trucks. In recent years, the number of tractors has been increasing year by year. The market share of China Cards has gradually become less, and it is no longer the mainstream model of the market (see Figure 8). .
Until 2008, the toll-by-weight capacity will be implemented nationwide. At this stage, the comprehensive freight rate will increase steadily. The high oil price operation will also support this round of freight rate increase; however, with the implementation of weight-for- No factor continues to support the continued growth of freight rates, and the freight rates will decline slightly after the optimization of vehicle models in the market and the increase of bicycle capacity, unless there is a large influx of logistics supply and demand.
3. Medium and heavy truck market speculation
According to the forecast of the comprehensive freight rate of the highway, the increase of freight rate will stimulate the truck's cost, and the heavy truck market will maintain a high market expectation in 2007-2008.
Vehicle companies should timely launch specific models that meet market needs according to the current transportation market demand, improve the efficiency of bicycle operations at the current stage, and gradually increase the freight rate, and the truck market will increase in 2009-2010. The speed will be relatively slow, and there may even be negative growth. The increase in emissions and insurance demand will further affect the structural layout of the truck market.
After 2012-2015, freight rates will continue to decrease, and the logistics industry will accelerate the integration process. With the increase in the quantity and quality of trucks, the total number of trucks used will increase year by year, and the overall social capacity will also grow steadily. The truck market will enter a low-speed development stage.
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