Tony Potter, president of CMAI's Europe, Middle East and Africa olefins division, analyzed that the next wave of capacity utilization in the olefins business will start to decline from the second half of 2008 and the downward trend will continue into 2011. However, 2007 is still expected to be a good year because only a few ethylene units have been put into operation. They are the cracking units of Formosa Petrochemical Company in Taiwan, China, and the cracking devices of Iranian Arya Sasol and Jam Petrochemical Company. Therefore, 2007 will still be a tight year for olefin production capacity.
Further developments in the Middle East may require more reliance on heavier feedstocks such as propane, naphtha or gas oils, which will reduce ethane production. This will increase the cost of the project and will require effective recycling of by-products. Although gas prices in the Gulf region are expected to rise, reflecting demand and export growth, their prices are still highly competitive compared to other regions.
According to CMAI, the proportion of Middle East basic chemicals and plastics production capacity will increase from 3% in 1990 to 15% in 2015. Until 2009, exports from Middle Eastern countries will still be easily absorbed by Asia. The analysis believes that there will be an oversupply in the market after this. Fran Keeth, executive vice president of Shell Chemicals, believes that by 2015, the Middle East will account for 20% of global ethylene capacity.
Michael J. Dolan, president of ExxonMobil Chemical, pointed out that the global petrochemical industry is undergoing major regional transfers. North America will change from a net exporter of petrochemicals to a net importer by 2007. By 2015, GCC will supply more than 20% of global demand. ExxonMobil expects that in the next 10 years, about 55% of the world's petrochemical industry will grow in Asia, and more than 1/3 will be in China. By 2015, Asia will account for 45% of the world's major general product demand.
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